The price of petrol in Nigeria could soon exceed N1,000 per litre following President Bola Tinubu’s approval of a 15 percent ad valorem import tariff on fuel imports. The new tariff, which will take effect after a 30-day transition period ending on November 21, 2025, is part of the government’s effort to protect local refineries and curb the influx of cheaper imported products threatening domestic refining investments.
However, petroleum marketers have warned that the policy could worsen economic hardship for Nigerians already burdened by rising living costs. Several depot operators, who spoke anonymously, said the decision would likely push petrol prices above N1,000 per litre from the current average of N920. One operator lamented that the policy “will only add more to people’s suffering,” while another noted that without a clear framework for market stability, prices could rise even further.
The National Vice-President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Hammed Fashola, described the policy as a double-edged sword. He said it could encourage local refining but also risk monopolising the downstream sector in favour of a few dominant players such as Dangote Refinery. He warned that if local refineries failed to meet national demand, the country could face fuel shortages.
The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, noted that the 15 percent tariff was not entirely new but required testing. He stressed that Nigeria must maintain both product availability and affordability, noting that Dangote Refinery alone could not meet the country’s energy needs.
President Tinubu approved the proposal by FIRS Chairman Zacch Adedeji, recommending a 15 percent duty on imported fuel. The FIRS said the measure aims to align import costs, strengthen the naira, and ensure fairness downstream.
Tinubu, in an October 21, 2025 letter, ordered immediate enforcement of a “market-responsive import tariff framework.” The letter, signed by his secretary Damilotun Aderemi, said the tariff could raise petrol costs by N99.72 per litre.
Despite concerns, the document stated that the new rates would keep Lagos petrol prices near N964.72 per litre, below regional averages in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ghana. The FIRS will manage payments through a federal revenue account, while the NMDPRA will provide oversight.
Adedeji explained that the tariff aims to protect local refiners and stabilise prices, not to generate revenue. He warned that the gap between import prices and local production costs was destabilising the market for new refiners. He said the government’s role is to protect consumers and producers from unfair pricing while ensuring fair competition.
Under the directive, the NMDPRA and Nigeria Customs Service are to implement the policy immediately after the 30-day transition period. The regulator will prioritise locally refined products when issuing import licences and review the tariff periodically as capacity grows.
Responding to the development, NMDPRA spokesperson George Ene-Ita confirmed that the regulator will act once it receives formal communication. He noted that the deregulated downstream market means competition and market forces will set pump prices once the tariff begins.
Energy analysts, however, expressed mixed reactions. Oil and gas expert Olatide Jeremiah said the tariff could raise petrol and diesel landing costs by N100 per litre. He warned that even top energy-producing nations import to stabilise supply and that high tariffs could cause shortages.
Political reactions have also emerged. Delta APC chieftain and oil magnate Chief Ayiri Emami criticised the policy, warning it would deepen ordinary Nigerians’ hardship. He urged the President to suspend the tariff until economic relief improves, warning it would mainly hurt ordinary citizens.
Emami argued that soaring fuel costs have disabled livelihoods, particularly in rural and riverine communities. “When you buy fuel, it determines whether you can even go out to fish.” He said the fish are not gone, but fishermen can no longer afford to reach them.
Public opinion remains sharply divided. Some Nigerians praised the decision as strategic, while others criticized it as anti-competitive and insensitive. Critics argued that the tariff gives Dangote Refinery undue market control, contradicting the principles of deregulation and free competition.
Despite these concerns, supporters insist the policy will attract investment, promote local production, and position Nigeria for long-term energy independence.
